Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
