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China has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.