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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still