War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".